Turning Down Broncos Good Move by Millen
At the heart of the discussion is the recent revelation by Sports Illustrated's Peter King contending the Denver Broncos offered two first-round picks, a second-rounder and two third-rounders, plus veteran linebacker Al Wilson to the Lions for the No. 2 overall pick. But the Lions wanted another second-round pick in place of the injured Wilson, and the Broncos refused. So Millen used the pick on Georgia Tech phenom Calvin Johnson, and now he's being chastised for it.
Using the handy-dandy NFL Draft trade value chart put together in the early '90s by Jimmy Johnson, who was head coach of the Dallas Cowboys at the time, we can see Millen was correct in demanding more compensation for the rights to draft a guy many consider to be the best prospect to come along in years. The No. 2 pick holds a value of 2,600 for the Lions. Assuming the Broncos would have picked in the 20s again next year (they held the 21 pick in the '07 draft), the first-round picks could have netted 800 points each, while the second-rounders are valued at 370 points and the third-rounders at 165 points a piece. Had the Broncos thrown in that extra second-round pick, the Lions would have received 2,670 points in return.
Detroit would have assumed a 70 point bonus based on the chart, but in our view, they should have asked for more (and they certainly shouldn't have accepted what some view as damaged goods in Wilson). The Lions were in position to draft a guy who looks like one of those special players that don't come around often, and it would be foolish to give him up unless a blockbuster deal was sent their way.
Sure, the Lions have multiple holes to fill, and five first-day picks would go a long way toward building depth on this team. But that doesn't mean they should have settled for anything less than fair value. Regardless of their current situation, nothing but a lopsided deal that leaned heavily in their favor would have been acceptable. And just imagine the headaches the combination of Johnson and Roy Williams are going to cause at wideout. Jon Kitna is a capable passer when given time to throw (a rarity in 2006), and the Lions are closer to contending for the playoffs than popular consensus might lead one to believe.
So kudos to Matt Millen for holding his ground. He made the correct move this time around. (Man we feel weird saying that!)
Comments
Kudos to you for saying that. Over the last four years at least. Millen had drafted, according to the experts as a good class. Every year he’s graded after the draft and it’s always been good. Just because the players did not pan out is not necessarily all his fault. Do I think Matt Millen should still be the G.M.? NO. But have his drafts looked good on paper. undoubtedly yes.
well the lions need alot of new players. They just need to start from scratch and start there new team with youngsters. The broncos just gave them pretty much 5 draft picks and al wilson(who would make there defense a whole lot better)and the lions turned that down for calvin johnson. right there just put matt millen in a bad position.
the recent drafts have been good and many players are still in the league. harrington did not meet expectations. rogers should not have been drafted ahead of johnson(texans) and then maybe mike williams would not have looked so desirable. the only trade for calvin would have to have included two 1st rounders in 2007 and two 2nd rounders.
Many of us in the Detroit area are also astounded at Millen’s sudden cunning. The Dre Bly trade was a good one and now he makes a good draft pick! Those in Hell are becoming uneasy that the Lions might actually win a Super Bowl someday, thereby causing Hell to freeze over.
Paul Ward
Millen has done fine this off-season. He’s gotten rid of the locker room cancers in Bly and Hall…turned down Al ‘neck injury’ Wilson and grabbed the best player in this years draft.
Millen got it right for once.