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James' Football Blog

By James Alder, About.com Guide to Football since 2000

Bears Land Cutler, But Did They Overpay?

Thursday April 2, 2009
The Denver Broncos made good Thursday on their promise to trade quarterback Jay Cutler. According to Jay Glazer of FOXSports.com, the Chicago Bears have dealt two first-round picks, a third-round pick, and quarterback Kyle Orton to the Broncos for quarterback Jay Cutler and a fifth-round draft pick.

The Bears held the 18th pick in the first round of this year's draft, which now belongs to the Broncos. Denver will also get Chicago's third-round pick this year and their first-round pick in 2010. Combined with Orton, that seems like a lot to give up at first glance. But when you consider that potential franchise quarterbacks in their prime are a rare commodity, it seems to me the Bears got more than a fair deal if, in fact, Cutler pans out in Chi-Town.

Obviously the first thought by many is going to be, who will he throw to? The Bears wide receivers obviously don't scare anyone. But keep in mind the Bears had Orton, whose down-field accuracy leaves a lot to be desired, throwing the ball. And the reason he was last in the league among starting quarterbacks at completions when the ball was in the air for 30 yards or more can't all be blamed on his receivers. In fact, Orton habitually overthrew a wide open Devin Hester last season. I'm not saying the Bears wideouts will suddenly become Pro Bowlers themselves, but a top-notch quarterback will make the players around him look better.

Along with Hester, there are two very big beneficiaries of this deal on Chicago's offense: running back Matt Forte and tight end Greg Olsen. With defenses forced to respect Cutler's arm, Forte will face fewer eight-man fronts and should continue to build on what was a fantastic rookie season. And I truly believe that with his speed and soft hands, Olsen has the potential now to vault up among the top pass-catching tight ends in the league.

Granted the Bears have other holes to fill as well, and they no longer have the benefit of two top draft picks to use on these position over the next 13 months. But keep in mind this is not a deal for the short term. Cutler does not need to lead the Bears to the Super Bowl in 2009 for this to be a successful deal. The Bears would not have made this deal if they weren't planning on keeping him around for the long run.

And when you consider the history, or lack thereof, Chicago has at the quarterback position, does it not make sense to roll the dice on a deal like this in the hopes of finally finding a legitimate franchise quarterback? After all, the Bears have started 30 guys over the last 30 years at the position. That's a pathetic track record by any measure.

And being the most important, and perhaps hardest position on the field to fill, doesn't it make sense to take a shot at a guy with Pro Bowl talent when the opportunity presents itself?

In my book it does.

Comments

April 3, 2009 at 9:29 am
(1) Nick says:

OBVIOUS BEARS FAN RHETORIC!!!

I CALL SHENANIGANS!!!

April 10, 2009 at 1:25 pm
(2) bob marks says:

Just a Terrible deal for the Bears.
Amazingly terrible.
Unbelieveabley terrible.
Stupidly terrible.
I just don’t know how to really express myself
for this idiocy.

April 16, 2009 at 8:02 pm
(3) BJ2727 says:

This was a mistake. Cutler is very talented, but he doesn’t have that “it” factor that Brees and Manning and Brady have. And you don’t pay that much for a quarterback who doesn’t have “it.”

April 16, 2009 at 8:36 pm
(4) James Alder says:

When you consider the Bears’ history with first round picks under Jerry Angelo, did they really overpay or did they spend picks that historically haven’t paid off for them anyway? Here’s a quick rundown:

2008 – Chris Williams
2007 – Greg Olsen
2005 – Cedric Benson
2004 – Tommie Harris
2003 – Michael Haynes and Rex Grossman
2002 – Mark Columbo
2001 – Davis Terrell

Looks to me like he’s struck out big time more times than not in the first round, so if Cutler turns out to be anything close to a franchise quarterback, then the Bears didn’t overpay by any means. And even without considering Angelo’s track record, potential franchise quarterbacks entering their prime are very valuable. Any way you look at it, though, the Bears didn’t overpay unless Cutler doesn’t live up to his potential.

July 13, 2009 at 2:15 pm
(5) The Commodore says:

Jay Glazer just reported on his FSN show The Scoopage that he spoke with all 31 other NFL coaches and not a single one of them believed that the Bears overpaid for Cutler. His conclusion was that the crapshoot that the draft ultimately is and the Pro-Bowl talent Cutler has already displayed, if anything the Bears would have spent more if they had to. Advantage, Chicago. I think Denver is the team that will be regretting this deal in 5+ years.

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