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James' Football Blog

By James Alder, About.com Guide to Football since 2000

Top QB Prospects Present a Dilemma

Monday March 28, 2005
There's a bit of an unusual distribution of talent in this year's NFL Draft pool of prospects, with the field seemingly not as top heavy with talent as in recent years. But don't let the lack of a clear cut top five fool you. This is a very deep draft field, especially through the first three rounds, with the running back, wide receiver, cornerback, and defensive end positions leading the way. There also seems to be no shortage of DE/OLB "tweeners" who generally fit well as attack linebackers in the suddenly vogue (again) 3-4 base defense.

The problem arises this year for teams at the top of the draft in search of a franchise quarterback. Neither Aaron Rogers nor Alex Smith grade out as high as Philip Rivers or Eli Manning did in 2004, but because of the importance of the position, QBs tend to rise on draft day, and there's a good chance both will be gone by the third overall pick. And because of the price a team must pay to land a top signal caller in the draft, a top-five pick can be like a game of Russian Roulette for a team like the San Francisco 49ers or Cleveland Browns, whose success over the next few years will depend heavily on the production of the prospect they pick should they decide to use that pick to take a shot at a franchise type quarterback.

In my opinion, any team at the top of the draft would be better off to hedge their bet by passing on both Rogers and Smith in the first round, and put forth a smaller investment in a guy like Auburn's Jason Campbell or Akron's Charlie Frye in the second round. In my book, neither Rogers nor Smith grades out significantly higher than the guys that are considered second tier prospects at this point... at least not high enough to make either the No. 1 overall pick. So, in my opinion, that first-round pick could be better spent bringing in an impact player at another position.

The 49ers have so many holes, that ideally they should trade down for multiple picks, but the lack of marquee names at the top of the list works against them. So, assuming they keep the pick, they just might be better off taking Michigan wide receiver Braylon Edwards or one of the top running backs in the first and snagging their QB in the second round. The chances of success for a guy like Campbell, teamed up with a receiving corps consisting of Edwards, Rashaun Woods, and Brandon Lloyd are a lot better than Alex Smith's if he were teamed up with Woods and Lloyd as his top two receivers.

At the No. 2 position, the Dolphins should not even consider using their first pick on a QB, so I'll skip to the Browns, who are in a bit of a different situation. They have a guy in place in Trent Dilfer who would be ideal in a tutoring role, and at this point of his career, is adequate for a team in a complete rebuilding mode. Bringing in a defensive cornerstone like Texas linebacker Derrick Johnson to build a defense around makes much more sense. In fact, they could even put off a quarterback selection until the third round when a guy like Purdue's Kyle Orton might still be available, and select one of the many borderline first-round prospects at cornerback that are likely to be available early in the second round.

Regardless of what they choose to do come draft day, the wise choice for both these teams would be to take the best player available and let someone else overpay for guys that would be mid first-round selections at best most years. And if either team is presented with the opportunity to come out of this situation with extra picks by trading down, they shouldn't have to think twice about pulling the trigger.

Updated Positional Rankings | Top 25 Prospects

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