Sunday, January 18, 3:00 p.m. ET on FOX
The big question in the AFC Championship game?
That’s easy!
Can Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts offense be stopped?
I’m not talking about shutting them down or even containing them for a significant portion of the game. I’m talking about making their punter get his dog-gone butt out on the field for one stinkin’ play.
The Colts offense has been so devastating during the post-season that punter Hunter Smith has yet to apply his foot to a ball. The Colts have turned the ball over on downs a couple times, once in each game as they ran out the clock in the fourth quarters, and once on an Edgerrin James fumble. But, through 17 possessions, they have yet to be forced into punting the ball away.
Manning and the Colts are on a tremendous hot streak heading into the AFC Championship game, but Bill Belichick’s defenses have a way of cooling down opponents in frequently-frigid Foxboro. The Colts have scored 79 points in two playoff games, but the Patriots are on a hot streak of their own, having won all eight games at home this season and their last 13 overall. And over their last seven home games, the Patriots have held their opponents to just over five points per game and recorded three shutouts.
These two teams battled in Indianapolis in the RCA Dome at the end of November, with the Pats coming out with a 38-34 win as the Colts failed to score on four plays from the two-yard line. Playing in Gillette Stadium in January will create another obstacle for Indy to overcome, but they’ve shown they are not intimidated by road crowds. Including a win last week at Arrowhead Stadium, the Colts are 8-1 on the road this season.
The difference in this game, I think, will be the balance of the Colts offense. The Patriots are tough at home, but the Colts offense is in a zone right now that I don’t think any team can touch. The Patriots are going to have to outscore the Colts, and the best way to attack them is on the ground. Indianapolis struggles against the run, unfortunately, the Patriots ground game just isn’t strong enough to take advantage.
Indianapolis just does not get rattled on the road, and I believe they will continue to roll on offense this week. The Patriots will throw a lot of defensive looks at Manning to try and confuse him, but he is playing the best football of his career, and I think he will be ready for everything Belichick gives him. The Colts defense will probably not be able to shut down the Pats, but I think the lack of a solid rushing attack by New England will allow the Colts to focus on the short passing game of Tom Brady and the Patriots.
The Patriots had a nice run, but the Colts are peaking at the right time. I look for Indianapolis to win this contest.
Prediction: Colts 34, Patriots 27
