Sunday’s Super Bowl match-up between the Patriots and the Carolina Panthers promises to be a hard-hitting contest. After beating the Cowboys at home in their playoff opener, Carolina won on the road against the Rams and in a hostile Lincoln Financial Field last Sunday, where they beat up the Philadelphia Eagles, allowing just three points.
This Sunday’s contest figures to be a showdown between two of the best defenses in the league, while neither team is noted much for their offense. The Patriots come at you with a bit of a dink-and-dunk passing attack, and the Panthers rely heavily on their running game, but there’s no doubt it’s the defenses that have guided these two teams on course for the NFL's biggest annual showdown.
Carolina should be able to shut down, or at least contain, the Patriots running game, but they have got to get pressure on quarterback Tom Brady with their front four. Brady and the passing game rely mostly on a quick three-step drop designed to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hands as quickly as possible, and they used it to perfection to frustrate Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney in the AFC Championship game. They will try to do the same to the Panthers pass rushers in the Super Bowl.
Brady’s strength is his ability to find his receivers and make the quick decisions, while spreading the ball around to his receivers and backs on short patterns, so the pass rush just doesn‘t have much time to get in his face. That’s why it is so critical that guards Russ Hochstein and Joe Andruzzi, along with center Dan Koppen, keep Panthers defensive tackles Kris Jenkins and Brentson Buckner from collapsing the pocket. Brady’s short drops and quick passes will make it tough for the ends, Mike Rucker and Julius Peppers, to get to the QB, so neutralizing the tackles is the key to getting rid of the ball cleanly.
When Carolina has the ball, look for them to stick with the formula that got them here. Most likely they will pound the ball inside with their running backs, and take the occasional shot downfield on play-action passes. The Patriots can limit the effectiveness of the play action by containing the Panthers’ ground game, and they have the big bodies in the middle of that line that can do it.
Anytime Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has two weeks to get ready for a team, he’s going to have his team prepared to take away the opposition’s strength. I expect the Patriots to fill the holes in the interior line and force Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster to bounce outside, where the Pats linebackers are very good at cleaning up.
New England will also throw a lot of different looks at Carolina, and blitz from a lot of different directions to confuse and pressure relatively inexperienced quarterback Jake Delhomme. The first-year starter has thrown just one interception so far this post-season , but he is facing a much tougher, better coached defense than he faced in Philadelphia last week.
Overall, I think the Panthers are a tremendous team and they’ve been on a wonderful roll, but I don’t think they match up well with the Pats. I look for New England to jump on top early and take Carolina out of their game. They will most likely bottle up the Panthers running game, or at least contain it, forcing Delhomme to be the hero.
And while Jake has had an incredible first year as a starter, I don’t think he will get the job done against this Patriots defense.
I look for an entertaining, physical game… but I think the Patriots will come out on top.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Panthers 12
