| NFL Scheduling Conspiracy Rumor Tested | |
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I frequently surf the vast world of football web sites in search of the juiciest, most controversial NFL rumors. Most days it's just the regular coaches-on-the-hot-seat or quarterback-controversy rumors dominating my favorite NFL rumor sources, and on those days I normally skim the articles to get the basic information. But occasionally, I come across a piece of gossip or hearsay that demands deeper examination.
One of my favorite sources of NFL rumors is Profootballtalk.com. Often they come up with inside information long before the top football sites like ESPN or CBS Sportsline do, but occasionally they post something so off the wall that one might wonder if they are getting information from their stable of NFL insiders or from a bunch of unstable NFL Insiders.
Recently they posted an article that made me question the integrity of the NFL and its scheduling practices. It also made me question the fairness of the officiating in the NFL. But most of all, it made me question which of the two sources mentioned above had provided the information.
Basically, the article claims that the NFL purposely stacks the early season schedule against teams like the St. Louis Rams and the Pittsburgh Steelers while giving teams like the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants a bunch of cupcakes to beat up on. The NFL's alleged motivation behind this is to give football a boost in cities that had poor records last year, therefore raising more interest in the local team. PFT also thinks the NFL is doing this to make the playoff races more interesting further into the season.
Profootballtalk.com explains it like this:
"Free agency and the salary cap has caused the relative talent on most teams to compress. Thus, the old "any given Sunday" cliche never has been more true.
But, more importantly, confidence (or the lack thereof) becomes a bigger factor for teams on a week-in, week-out basis. The Steelers are reeling. The Panthers, in contrast, actually think they have a good team.
So did the league intentionally give the Panthers two softballs to start the season, and did the league intentionally stick the Steelers with two tough games?
We think the answer to those questions is a resounding, "Hell, yes."
PFT also implies that the league has directed the game officials to "help" the poorer teams, giving the following as examples:
"Specifically, the Giants, Falcons, and Bills seemed to get calls from the guy in the white hat that were undeserved and/or that were delivered with the kind of excessively strong conviction that some folks might use when trying to avert any questions or scrutiny regarding their true motives."
Keeping in mind the fact that the NFL already manipulates the schedule to give lesser teams an advantage with strength of schedule being determined by the previous year's record, I decided to check the schedules of some of the teams in question just to see how much validity this claim holds.
Using the first three weeks of the 2002 schedule, I compared the best eight teams in 2001 to the worst eight. Here are the results of my comparison:
• Week One 2002: The top eight teams' opponents had a combined record of 60-68 in 2001 while the bottom eight teams' opponents had a 61-51 record. Keep in mind that the record of the worst teams' opponents includes a 0-0 mark for the Houston Texans who did not play last year. Even so, the league's bottom feeders played a tougher schedule here.
• Week Two 2002: The top eight teams' opponents had a combined record of 63-65 in 2001 while the bottom eight teams' opponents had a 31-81 record. Again, Houston's record is not included. With this large of a discrepancy you might be able to make a case for conspiracy... if it were for longer than one week.
• Week Three: The top eight teams' opponents had a combined record of 47-65 in 2001 while the bottom eight teams' opponents had a 51-61 record.
• All three weeks combined: The top eight teams' opponents had a combined record of 170-198 in 2001 while the bottom eight teams' opponents had a 143-193 record.
After looking at these numbers, I think it is obvious that the NFL is not stacking the deck against the league's better teams. Two of the first three weeks, the lesser teams played as good, or tougher schedules as the better teams, and overall the difference could be justified by the strength of schedule policy the NFL uses.
So, in light of the evidence, or lack thereof, I think we can safely proclaim the NFL's innocence in this matter. I would also be secure in brushing off the ridiculous charge that the NFL ordered the officials to give certain teams a helping hand!
What do you think? Is the NFL purposely giving an early season advantage to the less-talented teams in the league while stacking the schedule against the better clubs? Join the debate on the About Football Forum!
