AFC East
This is going to be a very tight race between the Jets and the Patriots, but I really like the Jets’ defense and I believe they will edge out the world champions in the end. A healthy John Abraham at defensive end and Jonathan Vilma entering his second season at middle linebacker anchors a dangerous front seven and the secondary should be improved with the addition of veteran cornerback Ty Law. Chad Pennington also appears to be healthy and he is reunited with Laveranues Coles, a guy he had a very potent connection with in 2002.
The Patriots have a few more questions to answer this year, and although they should remain one of the better teams in the league, they have a lot to overcome. The loss of both coordinators and two key contributors at inside linebacker Buffalo has one of the toughest defenses in the league, but QB J.P. Losman is a huge question mark despite having a strong running back in Willis McGahee to take some pressure off his shoulders. The Dolphins are reloading and aren’t likely to make much noise this year.
Projected Finish:
New York Jets (10-12 wins)
New England Patriots (10-12 wins)
Buffalo Bills (7-9 wins)
Miami Dolphins (4-7) wins
AFC North
The Cleveland Browns are in a serious rebuilding stage and don’t figure to be much of a factor this year. I was really high on the Bengals coming into the preseason, but have not been particularly impressed with their performances so far. I still think this can be a break-out season for Carson Palmer and the offense, but I’m not sure they’ll be able to pull out a division championship. If the defense can pull it together , the playoffs are within reach.
On paper, the Steelers look like favorites to repeat, but injuries to the running game have made QB Ben Roethlisberger look more like a rookie this year than last. If nagging injuries continue to haunt Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis, a sophomore slump could send the offense into a tailspin. And the Steelers seem to have a way of crumbling under the weight of high expectations, so picking them to win the division makes me nervous. The Ravens are the team I would really like to pick here, but I’m far from sold on Kyle Boller. An elite defense and a running back who can pound the ball like Jamal Lewis will keep the team in most games, but at some point, Boller has to make some plays to put this team over the top.
Projected Finish:
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-12 wins)
Baltimore Ravens (9-11 wins)
Cincinnati Bengals (9-10 wins)
Cleveland Browns (4-6 wins)
AFC South
The Colts are easily the favorite here. Offensively, they shouldn’t miss a beat with all the key components back in place. And defensively, they may have finally put together enough talent to win it all. DT Corey Simon adds some backbone to what has been a soft interior defense, and his presence should draw some attention away from pass rusher Dwight Freeney. The Jaguars could present the Colts with a challenge if they can keep Fred Taylor healthy. They still have a quality defense, but they don’t have the consistent rushing attack to keep the football out of the hands of guys like Peyton Manning.
The Texans are a team that seems to have been on the verge of contention the past couple years, but just can’t get over the hump. They have a nice trio in David Carr, Dominic Davis, and Andre Johnson on offense, and some key additions were made to the defense. However, I don’t see them as a significantly better team than last year. The Titans are a shell of the team they once were, and I’m surprised Steve Mcnair chose to return to this. They have serious concerns throughout the roster and appear to have resigned themselves toward building for the future.
Projected Finish:
Indianapolis Colts (12-14 wins)
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-10 wins)
Houston Texans (7-9 wins)
Tennessee Titans (4-6 wins)
AFC West
The Chargers caught everyone by surprise last year, but this year they will be a targeted team and they face a much tougher schedule. And you have to wonder which Drew Brees we’ll get this year. The Drew Brees who put a firm hold on the starting job in 2004, or the Drew Brees whose struggles in 2003 encouraged the selection of a QB with the first pick in the following draft. My guess is we’ll see something in between this season. The Chiefs figure to be stiff competition for the Chargers, but their defense must improve immensely. They’ve added some quality veterans and rookie LB Derrick Johnson has looked spectacular in the preseason. If they can tighten things up to the point where they consistently hold teams under 30 points, the Chiefs should make it back to the playoffs this year.
