Giants at 49ers
The New York Giants have a recent history of being giant killers in the playoffs, so there's no discounting their chances in this year's NFC Championship game against a San Francisco 49ers squad that walked all over the NFC West during the regular season. The 49ers pulled out a win over the New Orleans Saints in surprising fashion last weekend while the Giants were pulling off the upset of the postseason by knocking off the 15-1 Green Bay Packers. Both teams enter this contest on a very high note.
Eli Manning has played tremendous football for the Giants this season, delivering consistently in clutch situations, and his team appears to be peaking at just the right time around him. However, they are facing a 49ers defense that, despite giving up more than 400 yards last week to the Saints, is arguably the best defensive unit left in the playoffs. They don't miss many tackles and they take the ball away.
On the other side, Alex Smith surpassed all expectations this season after being relatively disappointing over the first six years of his career. His clutch performance down the stretch in the win over New Orleans was a real eye opener. He's going to have to do it, however, against what is perhaps the best defensive line in football in the biggest contest of his career.
I don't see Smith & company moving the ball consistently on New York, so this game is likely to boil down to the Giants' ability to make plays on offense while also protecting the football so as not to give the 49ers offense short fields to work with. Experience is definitely on the Giants' side, as well, and that could tip the balance in their favor if this game goes down to the wire. Because of that, I give the G-Men a slight edge going in.
Prediction: New York 27, San Francisco 24
Ravens at Patriots
On the surface, the battle between New England and Baltimore looks to hinge on how well the Ravens defense handles Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. In particular, the Ravens are going to have to figure out how to contain the unique explosiveness of tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The Pats aren't particularly effective at running the ball, but their No. 2 overall passing attack presents problems because of the size, speed, and ball skills of their two tight ends. If Brady has adequate time to throw, New England should be able to exploit the resulting mismatches and move the ball effectively.
As we have seen in the past, though, Brady can be slowed by pressuring him consistently and not allowing him to step into his throws comfortably. The Ravens must disrupt New England's timing, and that starts by getting a solid push up the middle.
For the Pats defensively, the focus will be on containing running back Ray Rice, who the Ravens are likely to lean on offensively to keep the chains moving and the ball out of Brady's hands. A big game by Rice would go a long way toward tipping the balance in Baltimore's favor. Forcing quarterback Joe Flacco to get into a shootout with Brady, though, tips things decidedly New England's way.
Flacco isn't thought of as an elite quarterback, but he has had some postseason success during his brief NFL career. It pales in comparison, however, to the experience Brady has in big games like this. He's been there many times along with many of his teammates. And it's that experience of knowing how to win the big games combined with the emotional motivation of wanting to win for a beloved owner who lost his wife recently that will ensure a Patriots win on Sunday
Prediction: New England 31, Baltimore 23