Brady had one of his poorer performances of the season when the Steelers beat the Pats back in October, but he has a history of playing well in the playoffs. The Patriots uncharacteristically turned the ball over four times in their 34-20 loss in week 8, but they are usually very adept at hanging onto the ball in big games. They also have running back Corey Dillon, who was out of action the last time around. His presence will allow the Patriots to throw a much more balanced attack at the league’s No. 1 ranked defense, forcing them to account for the run before attacking the QB with their various blitz packages.
The biggest key for the Patriots is to get out to an early lead and force the Steelers and Roethlisberger to play catch-up. If they can get the Steelers into a position where they have to count on their rookie quarterback to make plays with his arm, I believe they will be in trouble. And that’s not a knock on Roethlisberger, who struggled last week against the Jets. We all saw what Bill Belichick’s defense did to Peyton Manning and the league’s most prolific offense last week.
New England must also do a better job of holding onto the ball this time around and they must be patient in their attack. Look for them to run out of some three and four-receiver sets early on to establish the ground game. They will have to take a few shots downfield as well to keep the Steelers from cheating a safety up into the box, but Brady has to take what the defense gives him and not force the ball into double and triple coverage. They also must figure out a way to slow the Steelers ground attack.
But that won’t be easy. This is a tough-nosed Steelers football team that is among the best in the league at running the ball. And there is no reason to think their running game will suddenly disappear, with pro-bowlers Alan Faneca and Jeff Hartings leading the way against a defense that could be without defensive end Richard Seymour.
The Steelers must set the tone again this time around with their running game, and they must get quick pressure on Brady in the Patriots’ short passing game. But pressuring him this time around won’t be as easy with a healthy set of receivers to spread the ball to and Dillon in the backfield.
The Patriots, on the other hand, will come out looking to stop the run and make Roethlisberger beat them. But that strategy could backfire if Roethlisberger is throwing the ball well. The Patriots are very thin and overmatched at cornerback, and the Steelers top three receivers, Heinz Ward, Paxico Burress, and Antwan Randle El, should be able to take advantage of the situation.
Overview
In reality, this is probably a match-up of the two best teams in the league, and it is such an evenly-matched contest it will likely come down to a field goal or a big play on special teams, and the Patriots have an edge in that department. I’d also give the Patriots the edge in coaching and they are a much more experienced playoff team. I’ve also learned not to bet against Belichick and Brady in the playoffs, so I’m going to go with the defending World Champions to find a way to somehow pull this one out.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Steelers 17
