The Patriots will be without both starting cornerbacks, Ty Law and Tyrone Pool, and defensive end Richard Seymour is still a big question mark, but as is usually the case with Bill Belichick‘s team, other players have stepped up in their absence and the defense hasn‘t missed a beat.
The Eagles will be getting weak side linebacker Mark Simoneau back, and it appears wide receiver Terrell Owens will attempt to play, but it’s not known how effective he can be, and whether he will be anything more than just a decoy when the Eagles have the ball. If he is in the game, the Patriots will be forced to respect his abilities, but Belichick won’t be fooled for long if Owens isn’t able to plant and explode off that injured ankle. Fellow receiver Freddie Mitchell has filled the vacancy left by TO’s mouth throughout the week leading up to the big game. Unfortunately, his big-play ability isn’t in proportion with his big-mouth ability should he be asked to fill a bigger role again this week.
If Owens isn’t close to 100%, look for the Patriots to try to take away the short passing game and force McNabb to beat them deep with his other receivers. Running back Michael Westbrook will likely be the focus of the Eagles’ passing game if Owens isn’t a big factor, and his speed should cause mismatches with the Patriots linebackers downfield, which could help open things up for New England’s wideouts.
The Patriots don’t match up well against the Eagles pass rush, so they will most likely feed the ball early and often to running back Corey Dillon to curb the aggressiveness of Philadelphia’s linemen. They’ll also try to spread the Eagles defense with three and four-receiver sets designed to give Dillon more room to run, and attack deep with the occasional play-action pass.
The Eagles struggled early in the season against power running attacks, and that was really their only weakness on defense. But since Jeremiah Trotter reestablished himself at middle linebacker, Philadelphia’s run defense has stiffened considerably, so the battle between the Patriots’ run game and the Eagles’ run defense should be an excellent match-up and could be the key to victory in this game.
Defensively, the Eagles will try to put quick pressure on quarterback Tom Brady and force him to get rid of the ball before he is ready with a variety of blitz packages designed to confuse opposing QBs by bringing blitzers from different areas. Unfortunately for the Eagles, Brady excels at making quick decisions, and he has so many solid weapons to work with that he may not be significantly bothered by the blitz. He also seems to rise to the occasion, putting forth his best performances in the biggest games, thus his 8-0 lifetime record in the playoffs.
On offense, quarterback Donovan McNabb must make some big plays with his feet, and avoid the turnovers that the Patriots were so adept at converting into points in the playoffs. The Eagles have an advantage in speed and athleticism over New England‘s defense, but the Patriots seem to understand the team concept better than any other team in recent history. Everyone understands their assignments and they play well within their roles in Belichick’s system, which leaves little room in the short-passing game and for McNabb to scramble when he can‘t find a receiver.
This should be a very physical contest on both sides. But I believe the Patriots will eventually wear down the Eagles defensive line, and Dillon will break off a couple big second-half runs, if they stick with the run game. Brady is a clutch player, but he is also a patient player and will only take what the Eagles give him. Also look for this game, which features two of the best-coached teams in the league, to come down to a key turnover by the Eagles that will allow the Patriots to once again take football’s most coveted crown.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Eagles 14
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