Of course, the Saints are going to have their work cut out for them going against the Peyton Manning-led Colts, who haven't lost a meaningful game all season. At this stage of his career, Manning is the epitome of confidence, carving up even the best defensive secondaries on a regular basis. And that's where the Saints 26th-ranked pass defense simply doesn't match up.
The good news for the Saints is that they can focus heavily on the pass since the Colts don't run the ball much. In fact, Indianapolis was dead last in the league in rushing yardage. However, that's probably due to the effectiveness of their passing game, which uses a lot of dump-offs to running backs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown as an extension of their running game.
It's not going to be a walk in the park for the Colts defense either, facing the top overall offense in the league, led by All Pro Drew Brees.
Saints Keys to Winning:
Keep Pressure on Manning - New Orleans' defense battered Minnesota Vikings quarterback Brett Favre in the NFC Championship, and they are going to have to knock Manning off his feet a few times as well if they hope to rattle him. They are probably going to have a little more trouble, however, with the Colts' offensive line.
Get an Early Lead - The Colts are at their most effective when they have the lead, so New Orleans can't afford to be trying to play catch up all day. If they are forced into throwing the ball time after time, the Colts' speedy defensive ends will simply pin their ears back and create havoc in the backfield (assuming Dwight Freeney can overcome an ankle injury that threatens his playing time and effectiveness).
Create Turnovers - Statistically, the Saints were in the bottom third of the league in total yardage allowed, but they were second in takeaways. If they have any hope of winning this game, they are going to have to force the Colts into coughing the ball up a couple times.
Colts Keys to Winning:
Stop the Run - The Saints offense is so dangerous not only because they throw the ball so well, but because their effective run game gives them balance and makes it tough for defenses to key on one area. If the Colts can limit the run, they should control this game.
Don't Let Brees Get Comfortable - Manning may be on a level of his own, but Brees isn't that far behind. And if he has time and space to step into his throws he can get as hot as anyone in the league.
As great of a quarterback as Brees is, though, I just don't think there is any denying Manning another championship this year. It takes a great defense to have any hope of stopping him, and the Saints just don't have one. They have had their moments this season, but their pass defense is suspect and Manning should be able to exploit it. I give a slight advantage to the Colts defensively as well, and believe they will pull out a tight contest in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Indianapolis 31, New Orleans 23