• Indianapolis at Kansas City
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
The Kansas City Chiefs defense played respectably for much of the first half of the season, but suffered a bit of a meltdown in the second half, finishing 29th in total defense. And their defensive struggles couldn’t have come at a worse time with Peyton Manning coming to town. The Colts blew out the Denver Broncos last week behind a five-touchdown, 377 yard performance by Manning that featured not a single punt by the Colts Hunter Smith.
The Chiefs have a huge home-field advantage, but the key to this game is going to be how well they control the ball. They are going to have to sustain drives to keep Manning and the Colts offense off the field. Their defense is not likely to hold up if they don’t. If their defense doesn’t get the job done, the Chiefs are certainly capable of coming out on top in a shootout, but their chances are greater with the NFL’s co-MVP on the sideline.
Look for a huge dose of Priest Holmes in this contest as the Chiefs try to hold on to the ball as long as possible. Holmes could have a huge game, but I don’t think it will be enough to put the Chiefs over the top. Manning is playing the best football of his career and the Colts appear destined for a major clash with the Patriots in the AFC Championship.
Prediction: Indianapolis 42, Kansas City 27
• Green Bay at Philadelphia
Sunday, 4:45 p.m. ET on FOX
The Green Bay Packers are this year’s sentimental favorite, with quarterback Brett Favre playing like a league MVP since the passing of his father. They are going into Philadelphia having caught a series of breaks over the past couple weeks. They have gone from nearly missing the playoffs to just one game from the NFC Championship thanks to several factors.
I already mentioned the outstanding play of Brett Favre the past couple weeks, which has been aided by the emergence of his wide receivers, who have been going after balls that might previously have resulted in an incompletion or interception. Their defense has improved tremendously also, and it all stems from the addition of defensive tackle Grady Jackson. The run defense up the middle has tightened up significantly, allowing the Packers to keep their safeties in pass coverage.
The Eagles are the NFC’s hottest team, having won ten of their last eleven contests, and that only loss came in overtime against the San Francisco 49ers. However, the Eagles are not quite as dominating at home, having lost three of their eight games in Lincoln Financial Field, although two of those were all the way back at the beginning of the season.
The Eagles made a tremendous turnaround after a horrific start by the team and by Donovan McNabb in particular, but this is not the same defense that carried this team to back-to-back NFC Championship games.
The Packers are a dangerous team with a greatly improved defense and a hall of fame caliber quarterback that probably has as much motivation to win the big one as he ever has throughout his career. I think the Packers will take this one on the road.
Prediction: Packers 31, Eagles 17
