On the surface, the BCS Championship game between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Florida seems to heavily favor the Buckeyes. But when you start digging into the match-ups, this contest is a little tougher to call than anticipated. I don't think there's a lot of doubt that the Buckeyes are the more talented team, but there are certain facets of their game that I believe can be exploited by the Gators.
The Michigan Wolverines spread things out offensively against the Buckeyes earlier in the season and had considerable success with it. The Gators also run a spread attack that is designed to put pressure on opposing defenses. And they certainly have the personnel necessary at wide receiver with Dallas Baker, Andre Caldwell, Jemalle Cornelius and Percy Harvin. This could cause some problems for the Buckeyes in terms of matching up.
Sophomore cornerback Malcolm Jenkins is a tremendous talent who can shut down his area of the field. But in terms of man-to-man cover skills, there's a significant drop-off behind Jenkins, which could cause some problems when Florida head coach Urban Myer starts throwing the multiple-receiver sets at them.
The Gators' running game, however, leaves a little to be desired, which means the Buckeyes will have a little bit of an advantage in being able to focus somewhat more on Florida's passing attack. And quarterback Chris Leak can be rattled by pressure, so if Ohio State's front four can get consistent pressure, they could disrupt the Gators' passing game and maybe create some turnovers.
Defensively, the Gators are charged with stopping the nation's best player in QB Troy Smith, but they can't forget about the Buckeyes' running game led by the underrated Antonio Pittman. Florida boasts the No. 6 run defense in the nation, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them bottle up Ohio State's rushing attack.
But with dangerous weapons on the outside like Ted Ginn Jr., I'm not sure Florida can shut down both the run game and the passing game of Ohio State. Smith has been torching defenses through the air all season, and I see him as the difference in what should be a closer contest than many anticipate.
Prediction: Ohio State 27, Florida 24
